From Aleppo to Moscow: How Russia’s Struggles Are Shaping Syria’s War

In a significant turn of events, Syrian opposition forces have captured key territories, including Aleppo and parts of Hama, from President Bashar al-Assad's regime. This offensive, led by groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks the most substantial shift in Syria's civil war since 2016.

Amid these developments, Assad urgently traveled to Moscow, seeking increased military support from Russia. However, Russia's capacity to assist is notably diminished due to its ongoing war in Ukraine, which has severely strained its military resources and economic stability.

Military Strain: Russia's military is heavily engaged in Ukraine, leading to a depletion of personnel and equipment. Reports indicate that Russia has redirected significant military assets, including air defense systems, from Syria to Ukraine, leaving Assad's forces vulnerable.

Economic Constraints: The war in Ukraine has inflicted substantial economic damage on Russia. The Russian economy contracted by 2.1% in 2022, with sanctions and war expenditures exacerbating fiscal pressures. Inflation has surged, and the ruble has depreciated significantly, limiting Russia's ability to finance foreign military engagements.

These factors collectively hinder Russia's capacity to project power in Syria, emboldening opposition forces to exploit the Assad regime's weakened state.

While Iran remains a key ally to Assad, it faces its own set of challenges, including domestic unrest and economic sanctions, which constrain its ability to fully support the Syrian government.

The situation in Syria exemplifies a broader trend: as Russia's global influence wanes due to its entanglement in Ukraine, allied authoritarian regimes may find themselves increasingly isolated and susceptible to internal challenges. This shift could lead to significant geopolitical realignments, particularly in regions where Russian support has been pivotal in maintaining autocratic leadership.

In summary, the resurgence of Syrian opposition forces underscores the far-reaching consequences of Russia's military and economic overextension, signaling potential vulnerabilities for other regimes reliant on Moscow's backing.